MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for July 19 | FantasyLabs (2024)

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Justyn-Henry Malloy ($2,600): Outfielder, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers rookie outfielder went into the break with a four-game hit streak and a +1.77 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has four 14+ DraftKings point games over that span.

Justyn-Henry Malloy is batting .219/.309/.417 in 33 games since being called up on June 3. He has five home runs and 11 RBI with a 33.9 hard hit %. If he can find a way to limit his high 34.5% strikeout rate, Malloy has the potential to improve his fantasy outcomes.

Today, the Tigers face Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt. He finished 8-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP before the All-Star break.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Hunter Brown ($8,400) at Seattle Mariners

The main slate is crowded with solid pitching options in the same salary tier. Twelve starters landed between $8,100 and $9,500 on today’s salary chart, and the model picked Hunter Brown as the best ceiling option out of the bunch.

Brown is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 18 starts. He allows a low 31.8 hard hit % and 29.9 sweet spot %. He has a +0.43 average Plus/Minus on the season.

Using Plate IQ, the Mariners have a .128 ISO and .266 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup has a sky-high 36.2 K% with only one High wOBA hitter. The model sees a lot of potential for Brown to exceed his normal strikeout numbers.

Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Boston Red Sox

On a full main slate, Shohei Ohtani leads the ceiling projections after an insane first half of 2024. The new Dodgers superstar posted an incredible .316/.400/.635 batting line before the break.

Ohtani is near triple crown territory as he leads the National League with 29 home runs, sits third with 69 RBI, and trails just Christian Yelich in batting average. If that’s not impressive enough, he is tied for third with 23 stolen bases to boost his fantasy ceiling to meteoric levels.

The Dodgers kick off their second half at home against Boston and Nick Pivetta. The Red Sox right-hander is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The model loves Ohtani to continue his historic campaign tonight.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Luis Castillo ($8,200) vs. Houston Astros

It’s been an up-and-down season thus far for Luis Castillo, with an 8-9 record and a 3.53 ERA. A workhorse for the Astros, Castillo is seventh in the American League in innings pitched and 11th with 116 strikeouts despite a moderate 24.2 K%.

Castillo is 5-3 at home this season with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has allowed one total run over his last two starts, with 23+ DraftKings points in each.

The Astros’ strength is putting the ball in play, with a 21.1 K% in their projected lineup. They have a .151 ISO and .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Jorge Soler ($5,000) at Colorado Rockies

The Giants have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate today as they get the Colorado boost after the break. Jorge Soler leads the projections for San Francisco despite a lackluster first half of 2024.

After launching 36 home runs last season, Soler’s power numbers have been depressed with 10 long bombs through 82 games. He is batting .225/.305/.397 with 33 RBI and 47 runs scored.

Cal Quantrill gets the nod for Colorado tonight. He was 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP overall before the break, with a 2-3 mark and 4.00 at Coors Field.

Ezequiel Tovar ($4,500) vs. San Francisco Giants

Ezequiel Tovar is another model pick in the opposite dugout. In his last game before the All-Star break, Tovar exploded for 39 DraftKings points with two home runs, a double, and four RBI.

On the season, Tovar is batting .274/.302/.462 with 14 home runs and 42 RBI. He sits fourth in the National League with 108 hits and second with 38 doubles.

The Giants trot out 22-year-old Kyle Harrison tonight with a 5-4 record and a 4.08 ERA. He allows an elevated 44.9 hard hit % and 90.7 average exit velocity. The model expects fireworks in Denver tonight, and Tovar is a prime candidate for a fantasy boost.

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Become a PRO Member

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Justyn-Henry Malloy ($2,600): Outfielder, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers rookie outfielder went into the break with a four-game hit streak and a +1.77 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has four 14+ DraftKings point games over that span.

Justyn-Henry Malloy is batting .219/.309/.417 in 33 games since being called up on June 3. He has five home runs and 11 RBI with a 33.9 hard hit %. If he can find a way to limit his high 34.5% strikeout rate, Malloy has the potential to improve his fantasy outcomes.

Today, the Tigers face Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt. He finished 8-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP before the All-Star break.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Hunter Brown ($8,400) at Seattle Mariners

The main slate is crowded with solid pitching options in the same salary tier. Twelve starters landed between $8,100 and $9,500 on today’s salary chart, and the model picked Hunter Brown as the best ceiling option out of the bunch.

Brown is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 18 starts. He allows a low 31.8 hard hit % and 29.9 sweet spot %. He has a +0.43 average Plus/Minus on the season.

Using Plate IQ, the Mariners have a .128 ISO and .266 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup has a sky-high 36.2 K% with only one High wOBA hitter. The model sees a lot of potential for Brown to exceed his normal strikeout numbers.

Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Boston Red Sox

On a full main slate, Shohei Ohtani leads the ceiling projections after an insane first half of 2024. The new Dodgers superstar posted an incredible .316/.400/.635 batting line before the break.

Ohtani is near triple crown territory as he leads the National League with 29 home runs, sits third with 69 RBI, and trails just Christian Yelich in batting average. If that’s not impressive enough, he is tied for third with 23 stolen bases to boost his fantasy ceiling to meteoric levels.

The Dodgers kick off their second half at home against Boston and Nick Pivetta. The Red Sox right-hander is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The model loves Ohtani to continue his historic campaign tonight.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Luis Castillo ($8,200) vs. Houston Astros

It’s been an up-and-down season thus far for Luis Castillo, with an 8-9 record and a 3.53 ERA. A workhorse for the Astros, Castillo is seventh in the American League in innings pitched and 11th with 116 strikeouts despite a moderate 24.2 K%.

Castillo is 5-3 at home this season with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has allowed one total run over his last two starts, with 23+ DraftKings points in each.

The Astros’ strength is putting the ball in play, with a 21.1 K% in their projected lineup. They have a .151 ISO and .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Jorge Soler ($5,000) at Colorado Rockies

The Giants have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate today as they get the Colorado boost after the break. Jorge Soler leads the projections for San Francisco despite a lackluster first half of 2024.

After launching 36 home runs last season, Soler’s power numbers have been depressed with 10 long bombs through 82 games. He is batting .225/.305/.397 with 33 RBI and 47 runs scored.

Cal Quantrill gets the nod for Colorado tonight. He was 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP overall before the break, with a 2-3 mark and 4.00 at Coors Field.

Ezequiel Tovar ($4,500) vs. San Francisco Giants

Ezequiel Tovar is another model pick in the opposite dugout. In his last game before the All-Star break, Tovar exploded for 39 DraftKings points with two home runs, a double, and four RBI.

On the season, Tovar is batting .274/.302/.462 with 14 home runs and 42 RBI. He sits fourth in the National League with 108 hits and second with 38 doubles.

The Giants trot out 22-year-old Kyle Harrison tonight with a 5-4 record and a 4.08 ERA. He allows an elevated 44.9 hard hit % and 90.7 average exit velocity. The model expects fireworks in Denver tonight, and Tovar is a prime candidate for a fantasy boost.

Ben Strunk writes MLB and NFL DFS content for FantasyLabs. He earned bachelor's degrees in journalism and sports management at Ohio University and a masters in sport management from the University of Florida. Strunk has written for a variety of media outlets, including The Gainesville Sun over his career. He has more than a decade of fantasy sports experience and aims to provide data-driven analysis in a clear, efficient voice. Outside of fantasy sports, Strunk is a long time sports card collector, high school sports official, and ultrarunner.