MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (2024)

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Will Wagner ($2,400): Second Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays rookie second baseman has eight hits in his first 15 big league at-bats since joining Toronto on August 12. Will Wagner has at least one hit in each of his four games, with three doubles and three RBI.

Wagner’s ceiling is capped without massive power numbers, but he did bat .315/.432/.444 in 77 minor league games this season with six home runs and 43 RBI.

He is a low-priced dart throw tonight against fellow rookie Julian Aguiar, making his major league debut on the mound for the Reds. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA in nine minor league starts this season.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Michael King ($10,000) vs. Minnesota Twins

In his first season with the Padres, and as a full-time big league starter, Michael King has exceeded all expectations with a 10-6 record, 3.19 ERA, and 1.17 ERA. He sits eighth in the National League with 161 strikeouts and seventh in opposing batting average at .221.

King has positive Plus/Minus results in six of his last seven starts, with 20+ DraftKings points in five of his last six. Despite a lack of high-end velocity, King allows an incredible 29.8 hard hit % with an 85.2 average exit velocity.

Using Plate IQ, the Twins have a .187 ISO and .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low run projection with low park ratings from both sides of the plate. Minnesota has three high ISO and four high wOBA in the lineup tonight.

Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Nobody has been hotter since the All-Star Break than Royals’ star Bobby Witt Jr. He is hitting .449/.508/.832 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, and 28 RBI.

His recent production has bumped his season-long league-leading batting average to .350. He also leads the American League with 107 runs scored and 173 hits. He has a +5.21 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and showed his high ceiling potential with 39 points against the Red Sox on August 7.

Witt Jr. is a model favorite tonight at home against right-hander Carson Fulmer. The Angels starter is 0-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. All but three of Witt Jr.’s 25 home runs have come against righties this season.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Kyle Harrison ($7,900) vs. Chicago White Sox

In his first full big league season, Kyle Harrison has kept his record above water at 6-5 with a 4.14 ERA. The Giants left-hander has a strong matchup tonight at home against the White Sox. Harrison has been better at home this season with a 3-1 record, 3.64 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.

Despite a strong matchup, the floor remains relatively low for Harrison with a 44.3 hard hit % allowed and a .260 xBA. He has two DraftKings results under 10 points out of his last three starts.

The White Sox matchup is the reason for excitement to add Harrison to lineups tonight. Chicago has an extremely low .114 ISO and .273 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have the lowest run projection on the main slate.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Michael Massey ($3,900) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Without any obvious offensive explosions on the schedule. The Royals have the highest implied run total on today’s main slate against Carson Fulmer of the Angels.

Michael Massey is a Royals option a little further down the salary list that could provide dividends with the plus matchup. In 64 games this season, Massey is batting .266/.289/.468 with 10 home runs and 35 RBI. Massey has a +1.02 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with four double-digit fantasy point totals in that span.

Fulmer is 0-3 on the season with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Tyler Fitzgerald ($5,200) vs. Chicago White Sox

Tyler Fitzgerald has turned heads since the All-Star Break with a .342/.393/.748 batting line. The 26-year-old has a +3.13 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Without big power numbers, Fitzgerald remains a consistent fantasy performer with nine double-digit DraftKings games so far in August. He has a 42.9 sweet spot % and a 36.1 hard hit % on the season with a .416 wOBA.

The White Sox start right-hander Jonathan Cannon tonight with a 2-6 record, 4.02 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP. The rookie hurler has allowed 12 home runs in 13 starts this season.

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Become a PRO Member

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Will Wagner ($2,400): Second Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays rookie second baseman has eight hits in his first 15 big league at-bats since joining Toronto on August 12. Will Wagner has at least one hit in each of his four games, with three doubles and three RBI.

Wagner’s ceiling is capped without massive power numbers, but he did bat .315/.432/.444 in 77 minor league games this season with six home runs and 43 RBI.

He is a low-priced dart throw tonight against fellow rookie Julian Aguiar, making his major league debut on the mound for the Reds. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA in nine minor league starts this season.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Michael King ($10,000) vs. Minnesota Twins

In his first season with the Padres, and as a full-time big league starter, Michael King has exceeded all expectations with a 10-6 record, 3.19 ERA, and 1.17 ERA. He sits eighth in the National League with 161 strikeouts and seventh in opposing batting average at .221.

King has positive Plus/Minus results in six of his last seven starts, with 20+ DraftKings points in five of his last six. Despite a lack of high-end velocity, King allows an incredible 29.8 hard hit % with an 85.2 average exit velocity.

Using Plate IQ, the Twins have a .187 ISO and .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low run projection with low park ratings from both sides of the plate. Minnesota has three high ISO and four high wOBA in the lineup tonight.

Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Nobody has been hotter since the All-Star Break than Royals’ star Bobby Witt Jr. He is hitting .449/.508/.832 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, and 28 RBI.

His recent production has bumped his season-long league-leading batting average to .350. He also leads the American League with 107 runs scored and 173 hits. He has a +5.21 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and showed his high ceiling potential with 39 points against the Red Sox on August 7.

Witt Jr. is a model favorite tonight at home against right-hander Carson Fulmer. The Angels starter is 0-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. All but three of Witt Jr.’s 25 home runs have come against righties this season.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Kyle Harrison ($7,900) vs. Chicago White Sox

In his first full big league season, Kyle Harrison has kept his record above water at 6-5 with a 4.14 ERA. The Giants left-hander has a strong matchup tonight at home against the White Sox. Harrison has been better at home this season with a 3-1 record, 3.64 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.

Despite a strong matchup, the floor remains relatively low for Harrison with a 44.3 hard hit % allowed and a .260 xBA. He has two DraftKings results under 10 points out of his last three starts.

The White Sox matchup is the reason for excitement to add Harrison to lineups tonight. Chicago has an extremely low .114 ISO and .273 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have the lowest run projection on the main slate.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Michael Massey ($3,900) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Without any obvious offensive explosions on the schedule. The Royals have the highest implied run total on today’s main slate against Carson Fulmer of the Angels.

Michael Massey is a Royals option a little further down the salary list that could provide dividends with the plus matchup. In 64 games this season, Massey is batting .266/.289/.468 with 10 home runs and 35 RBI. Massey has a +1.02 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with four double-digit fantasy point totals in that span.

Fulmer is 0-3 on the season with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Tyler Fitzgerald ($5,200) vs. Chicago White Sox

Tyler Fitzgerald has turned heads since the All-Star Break with a .342/.393/.748 batting line. The 26-year-old has a +3.13 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Without big power numbers, Fitzgerald remains a consistent fantasy performer with nine double-digit DraftKings games so far in August. He has a 42.9 sweet spot % and a 36.1 hard hit % on the season with a .416 wOBA.

The White Sox start right-hander Jonathan Cannon tonight with a 2-6 record, 4.02 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP. The rookie hurler has allowed 12 home runs in 13 starts this season.

Ben Strunk writes MLB and NFL DFS content for FantasyLabs. He earned bachelor's degrees in journalism and sports management at Ohio University and a masters in sport management from the University of Florida. Strunk has written for a variety of media outlets, including The Gainesville Sun over his career. He has more than a decade of fantasy sports experience and aims to provide data-driven analysis in a clear, efficient voice. Outside of fantasy sports, Strunk is a long time sports card collector, high school sports official, and ultrarunner.