MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 23 | FantasyLabs (2024)

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Korey Lee ($2,100): Catcher, Chicago White Sox

The White Sox catcher lands near the top of today’s bargain ratings with a solid matchup against Tigers Rookie Keider Montero.

Through 101 games in his first full big league season, Chicago’s Korey Lee is batting .216/.248/.359 with 10 home runs and 30 RBI. He has a +1.18 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games including a 21-point game on August 12.

Montero is 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He allows an elevated .280 xBA and 39.9 hard hit %.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Chris Sale ($11,100) vs. Washington Nationals

With his highest price tag of the season, the question for fantasy owners is whether Chris Sale‘s production can continue to outpace the salary level. His +2.74 average Plus/Minus over his past 10 games indicates he can.

Sale has impressed with a 14-3 record, 2.62 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP through 23 starts this season. He is second in the National League with 187 strikeouts and leads the league in both wins and ERA. He has increased his strikeout rate to 33.6% this season and combines that fantasy point-scoring potential with a very low 29.3 hard hit %.

Using Plate IQ, the Nationals have a .132 ISO and .328 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have one of the lowest projected run totals of the season, with moderate park ratings from both sides of the plate.

Hitter

Aaron Judge ($6,900) vs. Colorado Rockies

The Yankees superstar Aaron Judge continues to top the ceiling projections with his jaw-dropping production. Despite one of the highest DraftKings salaries on a nightly basis, Judge still routinely puts up high Plus/Minus numbers with a +6.45 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Judge has four home runs in his last three games and seven in his last 10. He paces the league with 48 total homers, a .465 OBP, and a .726 SLG. With the triple crown still in sight, Judge is raking after the All-Star Break at a .425/.564/.877 clip.

Judge and the Bronx Bombers get a gift of a matchup tonight against Rockies veteran Kyle Freeland. The left-hander is 3-5 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Expect a lot of ownership throughout the Yankees lineup tonight.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Aaron Civale ($7,200) at Oakland Athletics

With a strong matchup against the Athletics, Aaron Civale is a model value today with the fifth-highest ceiling projection and the 19th-highest salary.

The season has not gone smoothly for Civale, with a 4-8 record and a 4.78 ERA. He has a 21.7 K% and .252 xBA on the season and two 20+ DraftKings point totals in his last two starts.

Undoubtedly, the excitement for fantasy owners tonight comes from Civale’s matchup with the Athletics. Oakland currently ranks 26th in team batting and 25th in runs scored. They have a .158 ISO and .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Jarren Duran ($5,900) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Red Sox have a high implied run total on today’s main slate and Jarren Duran continues to put up strong numbers with a .323/.386/.630 batting line since the All-Star Break.

Duran has a +3.70 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with six double-digit DraftKings point totals in that span. He leads the American League with 39 doubles and 13 triples and sits second with 32 stolen bases. With a bump in power to 17 home runs this season, he is becoming one of the best fantasy options in the game.

Boston takes onRyne Nelsonof the Diamondbacks tonight with an 8-6 record and a 4.35 ERA.

George Springer ($4,500) vs. Los Angeles Angels

The Blue Jays outfielder is showing some life after a difficult season at the plate. George Springer has a +1.64 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, with three home runs and five RBI in his last three games.

Springer has a .221/.302/.384 batting line with 17 home runs and 51 RBI. He has been a bit better against right-handed pitching this season at .231/.299/.408. He is a moderately priced lineup option to see if he can keep his numbers heading up in the right direction.

Rookie right-hander Jack Kochanowicz gets the nod for the Angels tonight with a 1-3 record and 6.53 ERA in his first four starts of his career.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Become a PRO Member

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Korey Lee ($2,100): Catcher, Chicago White Sox

The White Sox catcher lands near the top of today’s bargain ratings with a solid matchup against Tigers Rookie Keider Montero.

Through 101 games in his first full big league season, Chicago’s Korey Lee is batting .216/.248/.359 with 10 home runs and 30 RBI. He has a +1.18 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games including a 21-point game on August 12.

Montero is 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He allows an elevated .280 xBA and 39.9 hard hit %.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Chris Sale ($11,100) vs. Washington Nationals

With his highest price tag of the season, the question for fantasy owners is whether Chris Sale‘s production can continue to outpace the salary level. His +2.74 average Plus/Minus over his past 10 games indicates he can.

Sale has impressed with a 14-3 record, 2.62 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP through 23 starts this season. He is second in the National League with 187 strikeouts and leads the league in both wins and ERA. He has increased his strikeout rate to 33.6% this season and combines that fantasy point-scoring potential with a very low 29.3 hard hit %.

Using Plate IQ, the Nationals have a .132 ISO and .328 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have one of the lowest projected run totals of the season, with moderate park ratings from both sides of the plate.

Hitter

Aaron Judge ($6,900) vs. Colorado Rockies

The Yankees superstar Aaron Judge continues to top the ceiling projections with his jaw-dropping production. Despite one of the highest DraftKings salaries on a nightly basis, Judge still routinely puts up high Plus/Minus numbers with a +6.45 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Judge has four home runs in his last three games and seven in his last 10. He paces the league with 48 total homers, a .465 OBP, and a .726 SLG. With the triple crown still in sight, Judge is raking after the All-Star Break at a .425/.564/.877 clip.

Judge and the Bronx Bombers get a gift of a matchup tonight against Rockies veteran Kyle Freeland. The left-hander is 3-5 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Expect a lot of ownership throughout the Yankees lineup tonight.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Aaron Civale ($7,200) at Oakland Athletics

With a strong matchup against the Athletics, Aaron Civale is a model value today with the fifth-highest ceiling projection and the 19th-highest salary.

The season has not gone smoothly for Civale, with a 4-8 record and a 4.78 ERA. He has a 21.7 K% and .252 xBA on the season and two 20+ DraftKings point totals in his last two starts.

Undoubtedly, the excitement for fantasy owners tonight comes from Civale’s matchup with the Athletics. Oakland currently ranks 26th in team batting and 25th in runs scored. They have a .158 ISO and .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Jarren Duran ($5,900) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Red Sox have a high implied run total on today’s main slate and Jarren Duran continues to put up strong numbers with a .323/.386/.630 batting line since the All-Star Break.

Duran has a +3.70 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with six double-digit DraftKings point totals in that span. He leads the American League with 39 doubles and 13 triples and sits second with 32 stolen bases. With a bump in power to 17 home runs this season, he is becoming one of the best fantasy options in the game.

Boston takes onRyne Nelsonof the Diamondbacks tonight with an 8-6 record and a 4.35 ERA.

George Springer ($4,500) vs. Los Angeles Angels

The Blue Jays outfielder is showing some life after a difficult season at the plate. George Springer has a +1.64 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, with three home runs and five RBI in his last three games.

Springer has a .221/.302/.384 batting line with 17 home runs and 51 RBI. He has been a bit better against right-handed pitching this season at .231/.299/.408. He is a moderately priced lineup option to see if he can keep his numbers heading up in the right direction.

Rookie right-hander Jack Kochanowicz gets the nod for the Angels tonight with a 1-3 record and 6.53 ERA in his first four starts of his career.

Ben Strunk writes MLB and NFL DFS content for FantasyLabs. He earned bachelor's degrees in journalism and sports management at Ohio University and a masters in sport management from the University of Florida. Strunk has written for a variety of media outlets, including The Gainesville Sun over his career. He has more than a decade of fantasy sports experience and aims to provide data-driven analysis in a clear, efficient voice. Outside of fantasy sports, Strunk is a long time sports card collector, high school sports official, and ultrarunner.