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MLB
- By Ian Hartitz@ihartitz
- Apr 4, 2017
The days of hitters having a set spot in the batting order are over. In an attempt to maximize offensive efficiency, managers around the league have begun to embrace analyticswhen it comes to lineup construction. Platoons have become more common ash*tters are shifted into and out of lineups based on the handedness of opposing pitchers (which is why we have a Lineups page).
If you look at our Player Models, you’ll see that the days of only scrawny-but-fast players hitting leadoffare over. Now guys like Kyle Schwarber and Carlos Santana are just as likely to hitNo. 1 as speedsters Dexter Fowler andJose Reyes. Clearly, guys higher in the orderare likely to rack up more at-bats than those lower in the order, but just how important is a hitter’s spot?
Let’s explore this question with ourTrends tool.
Hitter Performance by Lineup Order:2014-16
Takeaways
- The two top spots in the order have provided the most value since 2014. Leadoff hitters have offered thehighestConsistency Rating.
- The cleanup spots have historically scored the most points per game. Players batting in the three and four spots aremore than capable of putting up fantasy points, but they haven’t produced top-tier value or consistency.
- Any spot below No. 5 has been brutal over the past three seasons.
- No. 9 hitters are reserved for Dante’s Ninth Circle of Hell.
Hitter Performance by Lineup Order: 2016
Takeaways
- The gap between the two top spots and the cleanup spots closed last season, but the best value remains at the very top of the lineup.
- Once again, the top spots in the order have been the most consistent. The No. 2 spot has had lowerownership than any of the other top batters. While it alsoaveraged the fewest fantasy points per game, the N0. 2 spot offered consistent value with reduced ownership last season, especially in comparison to the No. 4 spot: Almost as many fantasy points, higher Consistency, lower ownership.
- The No. 3 spot in the order is perhaps the most overrated. It by far has the highest ownership (whichPro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock) — but the No. 3 spot has offered just the third-most Plus/Minus value on DraftKings and FanDuel. FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales has this to say about the No. 3 spot in his most recent Daily Fantasy Sports for Smart People book:
While you obviously shouldn’t be blindly forgoing No. 3 hitters, it’s probably the most overrated lineup position on DraftKings. It’s interesting that three of the top four stacking combinations last season did not include what’s typically considered an essential spot in the batting order.
- The No. 4 spot has carried higher ownership on FanDuel, although the spot has also been more valuable on FanDuel than DraftKings.
- Although the No. 5 spot has a lower Plus/Minus, it still offers value given its combination of Consistency and ownership.
- The table above suggests that stacks with hitters lower than fifth should be avoided. Of course, someNo. 6 batters are better than others — No. 6 hitters averaged 11.07 FanDuel points per game at Coors Field last season — but in the aggregate little value is available lower in the order.
Final Thoughts
Historically,rostering hitters high in the order has led to positive value on DraftKings and FanDuel. The two top hittershave especially thrived, exceeding their salary-based expectations in over 40 percent of games since 2014. Theidea that a team’s best batter hits third is true in that the No. 3 spot has historically produced the most fantasy points per game, but this production has come with heightened ownership and lower salary-adjusted value.
Don’t roster a hitter based only on his spot in the batting order, but it’s clearly a positive expected valuestrategy to stick to players at the top of a team’s lineup. While the first and third spots get most of the spotlight, there has historically still been plenty of value (with reduced ownership) at the second and even fifth spots.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Daily Fantasy MLB Scouting Report: Toronto Blue JaysDaily Fantasy MLB Scouting Report: Boston Red SoxAnalyzing MLB Weather FactorsChaos Theory, Statcast Data, and Daily Fantasy Baseball
The days of hitters having a set spot in the batting order are over. In an attempt to maximize offensive efficiency, managers around the league have begun to embrace analyticswhen it comes to lineup construction. Platoons have become more common ash*tters are shifted into and out of lineups based on the handedness of opposing pitchers (which is why we have a Lineups page).
If you look at our Player Models, you’ll see that the days of only scrawny-but-fast players hitting leadoffare over. Now guys like Kyle Schwarber and Carlos Santana are just as likely to hitNo. 1 as speedsters Dexter Fowler andJose Reyes. Clearly, guys higher in the orderare likely to rack up more at-bats than those lower in the order, but just how important is a hitter’s spot?
Let’s explore this question with ourTrends tool.
Hitter Performance by Lineup Order:2014-16
Takeaways
- The two top spots in the order have provided the most value since 2014. Leadoff hitters have offered thehighestConsistency Rating.
- The cleanup spots have historically scored the most points per game. Players batting in the three and four spots aremore than capable of putting up fantasy points, but they haven’t produced top-tier value or consistency.
- Any spot below No. 5 has been brutal over the past three seasons.
- No. 9 hitters are reserved for Dante’s Ninth Circle of Hell.
Hitter Performance by Lineup Order: 2016
Takeaways
- The gap between the two top spots and the cleanup spots closed last season, but the best value remains at the very top of the lineup.
- Once again, the top spots in the order have been the most consistent. The No. 2 spot has had lowerownership than any of the other top batters. While it alsoaveraged the fewest fantasy points per game, the N0. 2 spot offered consistent value with reduced ownership last season, especially in comparison to the No. 4 spot: Almost as many fantasy points, higher Consistency, lower ownership.
- The No. 3 spot in the order is perhaps the most overrated. It by far has the highest ownership (whichPro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock) — but the No. 3 spot has offered just the third-most Plus/Minus value on DraftKings and FanDuel. FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales has this to say about the No. 3 spot in his most recent Daily Fantasy Sports for Smart People book:
While you obviously shouldn’t be blindly forgoing No. 3 hitters, it’s probably the most overrated lineup position on DraftKings. It’s interesting that three of the top four stacking combinations last season did not include what’s typically considered an essential spot in the batting order.
- The No. 4 spot has carried higher ownership on FanDuel, although the spot has also been more valuable on FanDuel than DraftKings.
- Although the No. 5 spot has a lower Plus/Minus, it still offers value given its combination of Consistency and ownership.
- The table above suggests that stacks with hitters lower than fifth should be avoided. Of course, someNo. 6 batters are better than others — No. 6 hitters averaged 11.07 FanDuel points per game at Coors Field last season — but in the aggregate little value is available lower in the order.
Final Thoughts
Historically,rostering hitters high in the order has led to positive value on DraftKings and FanDuel. The two top hittershave especially thrived, exceeding their salary-based expectations in over 40 percent of games since 2014. Theidea that a team’s best batter hits third is true in that the No. 3 spot has historically produced the most fantasy points per game, but this production has come with heightened ownership and lower salary-adjusted value.
Don’t roster a hitter based only on his spot in the batting order, but it’s clearly a positive expected valuestrategy to stick to players at the top of a team’s lineup. While the first and third spots get most of the spotlight, there has historically still been plenty of value (with reduced ownership) at the second and even fifth spots.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Daily Fantasy MLB Scouting Report: Toronto Blue JaysDaily Fantasy MLB Scouting Report: Boston Red SoxAnalyzing MLB Weather FactorsChaos Theory, Statcast Data, and Daily Fantasy Baseball
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