MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (2024)

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Will Wagner ($2,400): Second Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays rookie second baseman has eight hits in his first 15 big league at-bats since joining Toronto on August 12. Will Wagner has at least one hit in each of his four games, with three doubles and three RBI.

Wagner’s ceiling is capped without massive power numbers, but he did bat .315/.432/.444 in 77 minor league games this season with six home runs and 43 RBI.

He is a low-priced dart throw tonight against fellow rookie Julian Aguiar, making his major league debut on the mound for the Reds. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA in nine minor league starts this season.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Michael King ($10,000) vs. Minnesota Twins

In his first season with the Padres, and as a full-time big league starter, Michael King has exceeded all expectations with a 10-6 record, 3.19 ERA, and 1.17 ERA. He sits eighth in the National League with 161 strikeouts and seventh in opposing batting average at .221.

King has positive Plus/Minus results in six of his last seven starts, with 20+ DraftKings points in five of his last six. Despite a lack of high-end velocity, King allows an incredible 29.8 hard hit % with an 85.2 average exit velocity.

Using Plate IQ, the Twins have a .187 ISO and .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low run projection with low park ratings from both sides of the plate. Minnesota has three high ISO and four high wOBA in the lineup tonight.

Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Nobody has been hotter since the All-Star Break than Royals’ star Bobby Witt Jr. He is hitting .449/.508/.832 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, and 28 RBI.

His recent production has bumped his season-long league-leading batting average to .350. He also leads the American League with 107 runs scored and 173 hits. He has a +5.21 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and showed his high ceiling potential with 39 points against the Red Sox on August 7.

Witt Jr. is a model favorite tonight at home against right-hander Carson Fulmer. The Angels starter is 0-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. All but three of Witt Jr.’s 25 home runs have come against righties this season.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (5)

MLB DFS Pitcher

Kyle Harrison ($7,900) vs. Chicago White Sox

In his first full big league season, Kyle Harrison has kept his record above water at 6-5 with a 4.14 ERA. The Giants left-hander has a strong matchup tonight at home against the White Sox. Harrison has been better at home this season with a 3-1 record, 3.64 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.

Despite a strong matchup, the floor remains relatively low for Harrison with a 44.3 hard hit % allowed and a .260 xBA. He has two DraftKings results under 10 points out of his last three starts.

The White Sox matchup is the reason for excitement to add Harrison to lineups tonight. Chicago has an extremely low .114 ISO and .273 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have the lowest run projection on the main slate.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Michael Massey ($3,900) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Without any obvious offensive explosions on the schedule. The Royals have the highest implied run total on today’s main slate against Carson Fulmer of the Angels.

Michael Massey is a Royals option a little further down the salary list that could provide dividends with the plus matchup. In 64 games this season, Massey is batting .266/.289/.468 with 10 home runs and 35 RBI. Massey has a +1.02 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with four double-digit fantasy point totals in that span.

Fulmer is 0-3 on the season with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Tyler Fitzgerald ($5,200) vs. Chicago White Sox

Tyler Fitzgerald has turned heads since the All-Star Break with a .342/.393/.748 batting line. The 26-year-old has a +3.13 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Without big power numbers, Fitzgerald remains a consistent fantasy performer with nine double-digit DraftKings games so far in August. He has a 42.9 sweet spot % and a 36.1 hard hit % on the season with a .416 wOBA.

The White Sox start right-hander Jonathan Cannon tonight with a 2-6 record, 4.02 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP. The rookie hurler has allowed 12 home runs in 13 starts this season.

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MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, April 10)MLB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Picks Breakdown (Monday, April 15)MLB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, April 16)MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for April 18

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Become an All-Access Member Today

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (11)

Lineup builder and optimizer

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (12)

Real-time DFS models & projections

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (13)

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Become a PRO Member

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Will Wagner ($2,400): Second Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays rookie second baseman has eight hits in his first 15 big league at-bats since joining Toronto on August 12. Will Wagner has at least one hit in each of his four games, with three doubles and three RBI.

Wagner’s ceiling is capped without massive power numbers, but he did bat .315/.432/.444 in 77 minor league games this season with six home runs and 43 RBI.

He is a low-priced dart throw tonight against fellow rookie Julian Aguiar, making his major league debut on the mound for the Reds. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA in nine minor league starts this season.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Michael King ($10,000) vs. Minnesota Twins

In his first season with the Padres, and as a full-time big league starter, Michael King has exceeded all expectations with a 10-6 record, 3.19 ERA, and 1.17 ERA. He sits eighth in the National League with 161 strikeouts and seventh in opposing batting average at .221.

King has positive Plus/Minus results in six of his last seven starts, with 20+ DraftKings points in five of his last six. Despite a lack of high-end velocity, King allows an incredible 29.8 hard hit % with an 85.2 average exit velocity.

Using Plate IQ, the Twins have a .187 ISO and .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low run projection with low park ratings from both sides of the plate. Minnesota has three high ISO and four high wOBA in the lineup tonight.

Hitter

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Nobody has been hotter since the All-Star Break than Royals’ star Bobby Witt Jr. He is hitting .449/.508/.832 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, and 28 RBI.

His recent production has bumped his season-long league-leading batting average to .350. He also leads the American League with 107 runs scored and 173 hits. He has a +5.21 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and showed his high ceiling potential with 39 points against the Red Sox on August 7.

Witt Jr. is a model favorite tonight at home against right-hander Carson Fulmer. The Angels starter is 0-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. All but three of Witt Jr.’s 25 home runs have come against righties this season.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (14)

MLB DFS Pitcher

Kyle Harrison ($7,900) vs. Chicago White Sox

In his first full big league season, Kyle Harrison has kept his record above water at 6-5 with a 4.14 ERA. The Giants left-hander has a strong matchup tonight at home against the White Sox. Harrison has been better at home this season with a 3-1 record, 3.64 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.

Despite a strong matchup, the floor remains relatively low for Harrison with a 44.3 hard hit % allowed and a .260 xBA. He has two DraftKings results under 10 points out of his last three starts.

The White Sox matchup is the reason for excitement to add Harrison to lineups tonight. Chicago has an extremely low .114 ISO and .273 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have the lowest run projection on the main slate.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Michael Massey ($3,900) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Without any obvious offensive explosions on the schedule. The Royals have the highest implied run total on today’s main slate against Carson Fulmer of the Angels.

Michael Massey is a Royals option a little further down the salary list that could provide dividends with the plus matchup. In 64 games this season, Massey is batting .266/.289/.468 with 10 home runs and 35 RBI. Massey has a +1.02 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with four double-digit fantasy point totals in that span.

Fulmer is 0-3 on the season with a 4.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Tyler Fitzgerald ($5,200) vs. Chicago White Sox

Tyler Fitzgerald has turned heads since the All-Star Break with a .342/.393/.748 batting line. The 26-year-old has a +3.13 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Without big power numbers, Fitzgerald remains a consistent fantasy performer with nine double-digit DraftKings games so far in August. He has a 42.9 sweet spot % and a 36.1 hard hit % on the season with a .416 wOBA.

The White Sox start right-hander Jonathan Cannon tonight with a 2-6 record, 4.02 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP. The rookie hurler has allowed 12 home runs in 13 starts this season.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, April 10)MLB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Picks Breakdown (Monday, April 15)MLB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, April 16)MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for April 18

About the Author

Ben Strunk writes MLB and NFL DFS content for FantasyLabs. He earned bachelor's degrees in journalism and sports management at Ohio University and a masters in sport management from the University of Florida. Strunk has written for a variety of media outlets, including The Gainesville Sun over his career. He has more than a decade of fantasy sports experience and aims to provide data-driven analysis in a clear, efficient voice. Outside of fantasy sports, Strunk is a long time sports card collector, high school sports official, and ultrarunner.

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 19 | FantasyLabs (2024)

FAQs

What stats to look for in MLB DFS? ›

Isolated power (ISO): We said earlier that you should be targeting power in MLB DFS. ISO is the best way to predict power. The simple formula for ISO is Slugging Percentage - Batting Average. This, in essence, gives us a player's extra-base hits per at-bat, which is where all the points are in DFS.

How to play DFS on DraftKings? ›

How to Play
  1. Pick a Contest. Browse the lobby to choose from a wide range of contests across all different sports. ...
  2. Draft a Lineup. Once decided on a contest, next you'll want to draft a lineup of real players competing in the chosen games. ...
  3. Sweat the Sweat. ...
  4. Check Results.

How do you play fantasy baseball on DraftKings? ›

It's easy to get started.
  1. Choose Your Contest. Create an account online or download the DraftKings app.
  2. Draft Your Players. Choose a contest and draft from all of baseball's superstars.
  3. Watch. Win. Cash In! Score big and win big.

What is the stacking strategy in MLB DFS? ›

Stacking strategy involves not just selecting the team with the highest probability of success, but balancing that potential success with the expected ownership from your opponents. Set your sights on understanding how to properly balance and compare ownership to probability as quickly as you can.

What is the most important stat in the MLB? ›

OBP (On-Base Percentage) – it's the number of times a batter reaches base by hits, walks or being hit by pitch, divided by his plate appearances (all at bats, walks, times hit by pitch, sacrifice flies).

Is FanDuel or DraftKings better for DFS? ›

Ultimately, FanDuel versus DraftKings will have one clear winner: sports bettors. We can't pick a favorite between FanDuel and DraftKings. Both sportsbooks have much to offer, and you're better off using them in tandem than picking one and neglecting the other.

Can you make money playing DFS? ›

DFS affords a huge advantage to skilled players. In the first half of the 2015 Major League Baseball (MLB) season, 91 percent of DFS player profits were won by just 1.3 percent of players (exhibit). Here is the breakdown: The top 11 players paid, on average, $2 million in entry fees and profited $135,000 each.

Is there a problem with DraftKings right now? ›

Current Draftkings status is UP.

What does oprk mean in DraftKings? ›

OPRK- Opponent Rank for average fantasy points given up against a position. (e.g. when a player has "16th" listed in the OPRK column it means his opponent is ranked "16th" in the league against that position.)

What is the best way to play fantasy baseball? ›

One of the most popular fantasy baseball formats is season-long rotisserie, also known as roto. In this format, players try to win certain categories. The most common format is known as 5×5 standard, which includes five offensive categories and five pitching categories.

Does a walk count as a hit on DraftKings? ›

A batter records one (1) total base for a single, two (2) total bases for a double, three (3) total bases for a triple, and four (4) total bases for a home run. Walks, Hit by Pitch, reach on error or fielder's choice don't count towards a batters Total Bases.

What is the best stat to look at for fantasy baseball? ›

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

BABIP is the most commonly used advanced statistic in baseball. Simply, it measures a player's batting average on all non-home run balls they put in play. BABIP is commonly used as a "luck" statistic.

What stats are best to evaluate relief pitchers? ›

However, the goal to evaluating a relief pitcher is to determine how a pitcher pitches in high-stress situations (when the score is close late in game) and to try to remove “luck” out of the equation. Three simple stats that evaluates relief pitchers in the most efficient way possible is SD, SwStr%, and SIERA.

What stats do baseball coaches look at? ›

Coaches also look at a player's statistics, including their batting average, on-base percentage, and ERA (earned run average). These statistics provide an objective measure of a player's performance and can help coaches identify players who are excelling in specific areas.

What is the best pitching stat to look at? ›

Earned run average (ERA)

Earned run average is one of those stats where the lower it is, the better the pitcher. A pitcher's ERA is calculated by the number of earned runs they've allowed (ER), divided by the number of innings pitched (IP) multiplied by 9 (the traditional inning length of a game).

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